NQ · model #24

PRELON IB

Pre-London Initial Balance (00:00–02:00 ET). Strong bull / bear confluence scores project which IB extreme gets swept during London, with extension targets beyond.

updated 2026-04-22

tier 1 both liquidity-magnet londonibconfluence-scoretouch-magnetherman

The setup

During 00:00–02:00 ET, the market forms a two-hour “pre-London initial balance” — a tight range that the London session will break. The breakout direction is not random: a bull confluence score computed at 02:00 predicts which side gets swept with surprising stability.

The setup draws two lines on our chart HUD during the 02:00–05:00 ET window:

PRELON IB — the outer IB high (or low) to be swept
PRELON IB EXT — extension target at ±0.5× IB width beyond the sweep

Entry rules

Window: 02:00–05:00 ET only
Score: compute the bull confluence score from 6 signals:
1. Anchor price > inner (01:00–02:00) midpoint
2. Anchor price > outer (00:00–02:00) midpoint
3. Inner-hour flow positive
4. Higher-high drift across the 2 hours
5. Anchor > midnight open
6. Anchor > Asia midpoint (20:00–00:00)
Classification: ACCUMULATION (<15pt width), BALANCE, TREND (drift > 40% of width), DISTRIBUTION (>40pt width)
Fires on: STRONG BULL (score 5–6) or STRONG BEAR (score 0–1)
Skips: ACCUMULATION class (these sweep both sides)

Target probabilities by classification

Class	Magnet prob	Extension prob
TREND	91%	66%
DISTRIBUTION	88%	52%
BALANCE	82%	60%

Backtest

n = 1,367 sessions, 5-year MNQ data:

STRONG BULL (score 5–6, n=537):

Sweep IB high: 88.5%
Sweep IB low: 50.5%
Extension up: 61.5%

STRONG BEAR (score 0–1, n=427):

Sweep IB low: 83.8%
Sweep IB high: 53.4%
Extension down: 57.8%

Yearly stability (Strong Bull IB high): 85 / 88 / 88 / 92 / 87 / 89% — very stable.

The Herman truth-test

This model was seeded from a Herman Trading chart claiming 100 / 80 / 0 / 20% for (sweep IB high / ext up / sweep IB low / ext dn) on a strong-bull ACCUMULATION setup. We pressure-tested the claim:

Claim	Actual (n=32)	Verdict
IB high sweep: 100%	90.6%	✓ close enough
Ext up: 80%	84.4%	✓ matches
IB low sweep: 0%	62.5%	✗ wrong
Ext dn: 20%	53.1%	✗ wrong

Bull setups absolutely do sweep the low — it’s a tight-range breakout-both-ways dynamic. The magnet-up edge is real; the “dual-side protection” claim is not. So we shipped the magnet, skipped ACCUMULATION entirely, and documented the caveat.

Why Tier 1 magnet

This is a touch signal, not a close-direction signal. The confluence score does not predict RTH close (bull_score=6 → lonUP 52.2% vs baseline 52.7% — zero edge). So the score is scoped to this model only; we don’t apply it as a broader regime flag.

History

2026-04-22 — Shipped. Magnet-only treatment, mirroring the AMD pattern. Extension lines added with per-classification probabilities.