SB CONTINUATION
Silver Bullet window (10:00–11:00 ET) aligned with W1 (9:30 first candle) → 85.8% close same direction. The single strongest close-direction signal in the stack.
updated 2026-04-21The setup
The Silver Bullet window (10:00–11:00 ET) builds a range. If the direction of that range agrees with W1 (the 9:30 first 1-minute candle’s direction), the session closes in the same direction 85.8% of the time.
This is the single largest close-direction edge in the NQ stack — larger than VWAP REGIME, larger than 0809 Zone Bias.
Entry rules
- Wait until 11:00 ET — SB range must have finished forming
- Check W1 — direction of the 9:30 1-min candle (bullish close above open = BULL)
- Check SB — direction of the 10–11 range (close vs open)
- If aligned: fire
SB CONT BULLorSB CONT BEAR(prob 85 / 83) - If SB alone, unaligned with W1: fallback
SB DIR BULL / BEAR(prob 70 / 65) - Target:
ny_high + 40(BULL) orny_low − 40(BEAR) - TTL: rest of RTH
Backtest
n = 1,366 sessions. Baseline close-direction: 53.5% BULL / 46.5% BEAR.
| Formulation | n | Close-dir | Edge | Avg pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 + SB aligned BULL → close BULL | 381 | 85.8% | +32.3 | +124.6 |
| W1 + SB aligned BEAR → close BEAR | 313 | 83.7% | +37.2 | −138.0 |
| SB alone BULL → close BULL | 710 | 71.0% | +17.5 | +71.7 |
| SB alone BEAR → close BEAR | 654 | 65.3% | +18.8 | −70.3 |
| W1 / SB opposite (ICT reversal thesis) | ~340 | ~50% | ±0–2 | BUSTED |
The ICT “reversal” thesis — that W1 bear with SB bull should predict a bull close — is pure noise. Only continuation works.
Why Tier 1
- Largest close-direction edge in the stack
- ~30% of sessions fire the aligned version (~8/month)
- Stable across years
- Paired with an independent confirmation signal (SB BRK) that fires on the post-11:00 breakout of the SB range
The W1 gate
Without the W1 requirement, the SB signal is still positive (71 / 65%) but it’s from 17.5 / 18.8pt edge on a 53% baseline — decent, not flagship. The W1 alignment is what pushes it from good to great. W1 is carrying information about the open’s conviction that SB alone doesn’t capture.
History
- 2026-04-21 — Shipped alongside Model 23 SB BRK. Both live as Tier 1 close-direction signals.