1H CRT
Candle Range Theory on the 1H timeframe: hour sweeps prior 1H extreme, closes back in body, next move targets opposite liquidity. Recalibrated against true-CRT hit rate.
updated 2026-04-23The setup
Candle Range Theory (CRT) on the 1H: a 1H candle sweeps the prior 1H high or low, then closes back inside the prior candle’s body. The read: the sweep was a liquidity raid; the next move targets the opposite extreme.
Line ships on our chart HUD as 1H CRT LONG / 1H CRT SHORT (or 1H CRT PRIME on the top hours).
Entry rules
- Trigger: 1H candle closes; wick beyond prior 1H H or L; close back inside prior body
- Direction: opposite the wick (fade the raid)
- Target: opposite prior-1H extreme
- Stop (implicit): sweep-wick extreme
- TTL: 180 minutes
Viable hours (n ≥ 30, hit rate ≥ 52%):
| Hour ET | LONG | SHORT | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00 | 54% | — | 2 |
| 01 | — | 55% | 2 |
| 02 | 52% | 53% | 2 |
| 06 | 54% | — | 2 |
| 07 | 64% | 55% | 1 LONG |
| 08 | 54% | — | 2 |
| 09 | 62% | 64% | 1 both |
| 18 | — | 82% | 1 SHORT |
All other hours: both directions below viability. Does not fire.
Depth adjustment (sweep-wick depth past prior extreme):
- LONG: <3pt −5% · 10–20pt +3% (peak hit rate)
- SHORT: <3pt −5% · ≥20pt +6% (deep sweeps 20–40pt hit 55%, 40pt+ hit 66%)
The recalibration story
This model used to fire 1H CRT PRIME 91% at hr=6–8 AM, which felt great. Then we built the CRT-reversal backtest and measured the true-CRT hit rate (price touches opposite extreme before sweep-wick stop, within 180 min). The gap was brutal:
| Hour / Dir | Old PM prob | Actual true-CRT | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 LONG | 81% | 27% | −54pt 🚨 |
| 06 LONG | 91% “PRIME” | 54% | −37pt |
| 08 LONG | 83% | 54% | −29pt |
| 07 LONG | 91% “PRIME” | 64% | −27pt |
| 18 SHORT | not fired | 82% | missing entirely |
| 09 SHORT | 83% | 64% | −19pt |
The old probabilities came from “close-same-direction within 120m” drift — which is not the question PM’s target field asks. We fixed the metric and rebuilt the table against n=5,160 signals over 5 years.
PRIME combo
isPrime = (hr==18 && SHORT) || (hr==09) || (hr==07 && LONG)
Only these combos earn the PRIME badge. 18 SHORT is the strongest single combo in the dataset.
2026 regime watch
- hr=07 LONG dropped 64% → 29% in 2026 (n=7 — small, but worth watching)
- hr=09 SHORT stable at 55% in 2026 ✓
- hr=18 SHORT still 100% hit (n=2) ✓
If hr=07 LONG’s 2026 slump persists past n=30 we’ll drop it from PRIME.
Why Tier 2 overall (Tier 1 for PRIME combos)
- Many hours below viability — gated hard.
- PRIME combos (07 LONG, 09 both, 18 SHORT) earn Tier 1 treatment individually.
- Rest are solid but not flagship. The model as a whole is Tier 2.
History
- 2026-04-19 — Original ship with old probability table.
- 2026-04-23 — Full recalibration against true-CRT hit rate. Overconfidence gaps of 27–54pt closed. Missing hr=18 SHORT edge added. New PRIME combo gate.