Day-of-Week Projection
Empirical weekday biases — Monday and Tuesday extend, Thursday tends to reverse — projected as ±1 × ATR14 from the open. Prior-only model, used as a confluence input.
updated 2026-04-28 tier 2 both supplemental dowweekdaybiassupplemental
The setup
Each weekday carries a small but persistent bias on equity-index futures:
| Day | Bias | Hit rate | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | extension | 58% | bull |
| Tuesday | extension | 54% | bull |
| Wednesday | neutral | ~50% | (skipped) |
| Thursday | reversal | 56% | bear |
| Friday | weak bull | 52% | bull |
These are weak edges on their own — but folded into the TRIPLE consensus scorer with an empirical prior, they shift the calibration on borderline signals.
Line ships on our chart HUD as DOW MON BULL, DOW TUE BULL, DOW THU BEAR, DOW FRI BULL.
Entry rules
- Lookup: weekday → biased direction & probability (no signal on Wed)
- Project target: current price ±
1 × ATR14, in the biased direction - Standalone use: don’t — the edge is too small
- Consensus use: treat as a +0.04 to +0.08 prior shift on aligned signals
Why Tier 2 (supplemental)
The signal is real but tiny. The reason it ships at all is calibration: when an iFVG retest or a London sweep aligns with the weekday bias, the consensus scorer can lift confidence from “marginal” to “actionable.” When it conflicts, that’s a reason to pass.
History
- 2026-04-28 — Page created. Numbers from a 1,300-day MNQ backtest. We don’t expect these to hold forever; the page will get re-priced as live data accrues.