Hourly Reversal Range
When an hourly bar closes with an outsized range (≥ 1.5 × ATR60), the next hour mean-reverts to its midpoint about 65% of the time.
updated 2026-04-28
The setup
A 60-min bar that prints a range ≥ 1.5 × ATR60 is unusual — it represents an outsized one-way move, often driven by a single news print, liquidity event, or stop-run cascade. The hour that follows tends to mean-revert toward the midpoint of that bar.
Line ships on our chart HUD as HRR LONG / HRR SHORT (named for the window: e.g. HRR 07-08 SHORT).
Entry rules
- Outsized filter:
range > 1.5 × ATR60on the just-closed hourly bar - Direction: opposite of the bar’s body color (bull bar → bear fade; bear bar → bull fade)
- Entry: market on next-hour open, or limit at the bar’s midpoint
- Stop: beyond the bar’s extreme in the direction of the original move
- Target: the bar’s midpoint (mid =
(H + L) / 2) - TTL: end of the next hour — if it doesn’t fade in 60 minutes, exit
Stats by range size
| Bar range | n | Mid-touch within 60 min |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5–2.0 × ATR60 | 540 | 67% |
| 2.0–2.5 × ATR60 | 280 | 64% |
| ≥ 2.5 × ATR60 | 160 | 56% |
The smallest qualifying bucket has the highest reversion rate — the more extreme the bar, the more likely it represents real news rather than a position-driven flush.
Why Tier 2
Quick expiration and a small target (mid is rarely far) make this a scalp, not a position trade. Best in low-news environments; the worst losses happen when the outsized bar was the first bar of a multi-hour trend.
History
- 2026-04-28 — Page created. The 1.5 × ATR60 threshold is empirically tuned; tighter cutoffs hit more but with worse follow-through.