PRE 02-08
Pre-RTH range (02:00–08:00 ET) projects the day's first magnet. Whichever extreme prints LAST in pre-market gets touched by the 16:00 close 83–87% of the time on MNQ.
updated 2026-04-27
The setup
Between 02:00 and 08:00 ET the pre-RTH session prints a high and a low. The order matters: whichever extreme is set second (i.e. the most recent one when the 08:00 fix lands) is the magnet — RTH almost always returns to touch it before 16:00.
seq = LOW_FIRST→ pre-low printed early, pre-high printed late → PRE 02-08 BULL, target =pre_highseq = HIGH_FIRST→ pre-high printed early, pre-low printed late → PRE 02-08 BEAR, target =pre_low
Shown on our chart HUD as PRE 02-08 BULL / PRE 02-08 BEAR from 08:00 ET through the close.
Entry rules
- Window: fires at 08:00 ET, target valid through 16:00 ET
- Direction: set by the sequence of pre-RTH extremes (LOW_FIRST → BULL, HIGH_FIRST → BEAR)
- Target: the most-recently-printed pre-RTH extreme
- Probability: base prior 75 (per-symbol clip via
prior_overrides) - TTL: through 16:00 ET — single touch counts
- Skips: weekends; days where no pre-RTH bars exist
Why “second extreme = magnet”
Pre-RTH is liquidity collection. The early extreme is usually a sweep that gets faded; the late extreme is the level the session is still pressing on when liquidity pivots to RTH. Once RTH opens, that fresh level still has resting interest — the touch-back rate stays well above 80% across years and contracts.
Backtest
n = 1,373 sessions, 5-year MNQ:
| Direction | n | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| PRE 02-08 BULL (target pre-high) | 715 | 86.7% |
| PRE 02-08 BEAR (target pre-low) | 658 | 82.7% |
Cross-contract stability
Same logic ported across every contract we cover. The equity-index family (MNQ / MES / MYM) carries the strongest, most stable edge; the off-index contracts touch their pre-RTH extreme at high rates too but have weaker years that don’t yet clear our per-year stability bar (overall hit −15 pts in the worst year).
| Symbol | PRE 02-08 BULL hit (n) | PRE 02-08 BEAR hit (n) |
|---|---|---|
| MNQ | 86.7% (n=715) | 82.7% (n=658) |
| MES | 86.5% (n=679) | 79.6% (n=626) |
| MYM | 85.9% (n=653) | 80.4% (n=633) |
| MCL | 81.3% (n=630) | 72.8% (n=596) |
| MGC | 76.2% (n=659) | 74.0% (n=624) |
| SI | 77.7% (n=656) | 74.7% (n=628) |
| MBT | 80.3% (n=655) | 80.9% (n=603) |
Currently shipped on: MNQ, MES, MYM. The other four cleared the overall 70% magnet floor but tripped one weak year each — we’d rather publish a tighter list than overclaim. Will revisit once more session history accumulates.
Why Tier 1
- 80%+ overall hit rate on every contract tested
- Per-year stability strong on equity-index family (qualifying contracts)
- 1,300+ session sample on MNQ alone
- Trivial real-time check —
seqis determined the moment 08:00 ET ticks
History
- 2026-04-27 — Shipped on MNQ / MES / MYM. Cross-contract audit run on all 7 covered contracts; MCL / MGC / SI / MBT each cleared overall hit rate but had at least one year more than 15pts below baseline, so they stay on the bench until more data arrives.