SB BRK
Post-11 break of the 10:00–10:59 Silver Bullet range. Independent directional signal — 73% bull / 69% bear close-through.
updated 2026-04-21
The setup
After 11:00 ET, the first break of the Silver Bullet (10:00–10:59 ET) range is a directional signal in its own right — independent of SB CONTINUATION. Break above SB high → close BULL 73.6%. Break below SB low → close BEAR 69.0%.
Shown on our chart HUD as SB BRK BULL / SB BRK BEAR.
Entry rules
- Window: post-11:00 ET only
- Trigger: first trade through SB high (bull) or SB low (bear)
- Direction: same as the break
- Target: break level ± 80 points
- Probability: 73 bull / 69 bear
- TTL: through RTH close
Backtest
n = 1,331 sessions with a post-11 break, 5-year MNQ:
| Break | n | Close-dir rate | Edge | Avg close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Post-11 break UP | 711 | 73.6% | +20.0 | +81.0 pt |
| Post-11 break DOWN | 620 | 69.0% | +22.5 | −84.0 pt |
Baseline: BULL 53.5% / BEAR 46.5%.
Why it’s independent
This fires even when W1/SB aren’t aligned — so it covers a different subset of days than SB CONTINUATION. On days where both fire (aligned + break in the aligned direction), the confluence is compelling but we only draw the higher-tier line to avoid crowding the HUD.
Cross-contract stability
| Symbol | SB BRK BULL hit (n) | SB BRK BEAR hit (n) |
|---|---|---|
| MNQ | 73.5% (n=714) | 68.9% (n=621) |
| MES | 73.6% (n=683) | 69.2% (n=594) |
| MYM | 70.9% (n=654) | 68.5% (n=594) |
| MCL | 72.2% (n=637) | 72.4% (n=551) |
| MGC | 74.7% (n=604) | 74.0% (n=557) |
| SI | 74.1% (n=590) | 73.4% (n=575) |
| MBT | 70.6% (n=561) | 74.3% (n=604) |
Why Tier 1
Clean +20pt edge on n > 600 each side, independent signal, checkable in real time (first-break detection is trivial). One of the highest-sample Tier 1 signals on the board.
History
- 2026-04-21 — Shipped alongside SB CONTINUATION.