Models
Each entry is backtested on NQ with the same methodology (see methodology). Tier 1 = highest confidence / largest sample.
OB RANGE (BULL / BEAR / MID / STRETCH)
NY opening-range box (09:30–10:30 ET). Where price sits relative to the box midpoint at 10:30 projects the rest of the session. OB BULL/BEAR carry real +18–21pt close-direction edge.
AMD
Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution. Asia establishes range, London sweeps one side, NY trades toward the opposite. Tier 1 touch magnet — 65% within 120 min.
PRELON SWEEP CONTINUATION
Pre-London (00:00–02:00 ET) sweeps an Asia extreme → London continues past it. 81% UP / 75.6% DN when Asia range is tight. Fires ~62% of days.
0809 HOLD RUNAWAY
08:00–09:00 ET zone holds into RTH, then price runs away from it. Rare (~13/yr) but close-direction matches hold direction 96.6% bull / 75.7% bear.
VWAP REGIME
Where price sits relative to session VWAP at the 10:30 and 12:00 ET snapshots predicts RTH close direction. 75/70% at 10:30, 80/79% at 12:00 — strongest pre-SB regime filter.
SB CONTINUATION
Silver Bullet window (10:00–11:00 ET) aligned with W1 (9:30 first candle) → 85.8% close same direction. The single strongest close-direction signal in the stack.
SB BRK
Post-11 break of the 10:00–10:59 Silver Bullet range. Independent directional signal — 73% bull / 69% bear close-through.
PRELON IB
Pre-London Initial Balance (00:00–02:00 ET). Strong bull / bear confluence scores project which IB extreme gets swept during London, with extension targets beyond.
HCS REVERSAL
At 9:30 snapshot, extremes of a 4-filter Herman Confluence Score fade. Score −4 → reach long 166pt (81% touch); score +4 → fade short. Best R:R on the board.
MN HOLD-SIDE
When RTH opens 60–200 pts away from the NY midnight open AND the 4H trend agrees, price holds that side all day. 409 sessions, +28 pts/trade at target 250; PRIME tier (10:00 ext≥60) gets +55/tr.
1H CRT
Candle Range Theory on the 1H timeframe: hour sweeps prior 1H extreme, closes back in body, next move targets opposite liquidity. Recalibrated against true-CRT hit rate.
INSIDE GAP FILL
RTH opens inside prior day's range but ≥10pt from prior close. Target prior_rth_close. Fill rate scales cleanly with gap_ratio: 77% mild, 53% moderate, 33% elevated.
LON BOTH BULL
London sweeps Asia low first, then reclaims and sweeps Asia high by 9:30 — a bull takeover pattern. Tight-Asia subset hits 64% UP close; with inside/below gap, 70%.
CONTRA BULL / CONF BEAR
Three-way vote across 1h EMA200, 0809 bias, and London sweep. One dissenter (if 0809 or LON) → CONTRA BULL 58–63%. All-bear aligned → CONF BEAR 57%.
R1617 FADE
Build the 16:00–16:59 ET RTH-close range. At 18:00, note the starting side of mid. First Asia-hours touch of mid from that side → fade back 15 points.
LON MOMENTUM BULL
Fresh, tight London sweep of Asia high — enter long near session VWAP, target +60pt. PM line on our chart HUD.